The Wholesaler's Deal Sheet Says It Pencils: How to Re-Run ARV, Rehab, and MAO Before You Sign the Assignment

Why a Wholesaler's Numbers Are a Starting Point, Not an Answer

A wholesaler's deal sheet is a marketing document. Its job is to get you excited enough to sign an assignment before another buyer does. That doesn't make every wholesaler dishonest, but the numbers on the sheet were chosen to sell the deal, not to protect your profit. Treat them as a lead, then verify every one.

Three patterns show up again and again. The ARV is often pulled from the single best sale in the area, sometimes a fully renovated house with an extra bedroom or a garage your subject lacks. The rehab is often a round "cosmetic" figure like $25,000 that assumes paint and flooring, even when the roof and HVAC are near the end of their life. The assignment fee is already baked into the asking price, so the spread you see is what's left after the wholesaler gets paid.

You need to rebuild three numbers yourself. First, ARV from sold comps within about 0.5 miles, adjusted for square footage, bed and bath count, condition, and sale date. Second, a line-item rehab budget by trade (roof, mechanicals, kitchen, baths, flooring, paint) priced for the property's county. Third, your own MAO, based on your costs and your target profit rather than the wholesaler's assumptions.

For a quick screen, use MAO = (ARV x 0.70) - repairs. If your adjusted ARV is $300,000 and your rehab is $45,000, the math is ($300,000 x 0.70) - $45,000 = $210,000 - $45,000 = $165,000. If the wholesaler is asking $180,000, you already know the deal needs a lower price or a much closer look.

Before you commit, run the full-cost version: MAO = ARV - rehab - buying costs - holding costs - selling costs - target profit. The 70% rule packs all of those costs into one rough haircut, which can run too loose on cheaper houses or long rehabs. The full-cost formula shows exactly where each dollar goes, and that matters when your earnest money is on the line.

Worked Example 1: Rebuilding a Deal Sheet That Claims a $187K MAO

A wholesaler sends you a 3-bed, 1.5-bath ranch with an asking price of $179,000. The deal sheet lists an ARV of $310,000 and a rehab of $30,000. Their math is clean on paper: $310,000 x 0.70 - $30,000 = $187,000. That puts the asking price $8,000 under MAO, which is exactly the cushion that gets buyers to sign fast.

Start with the ARV. The $310,000 figure came from a renovated 4-bed with a two-car garage, nearly a mile away. When you pull sold comps within 0.5 miles that match the bed count, square footage, and lot, then adjust for the missing garage and the smaller bath count, the supportable number lands at $285,000. That is a $25,000 drop before you touch the repair budget.

Next, rebuild the rehab line by line instead of accepting a round number. The listing photos and a quick walkthrough show a 22-year-old roof, an original furnace, and a dated kitchen. Priced for the county, the scope looks like this:

• Roof replacement: $12,500
• HVAC replacement: $8,500
• Kitchen (cabinets, counters, appliances): $18,000
• Flooring throughout: $7,500
• Interior paint: $5,500

That totals $52,000, not $30,000. Re-run the formula: $285,000 x 0.70 - $52,000 = $147,500. At an asking price of $179,000, you would be paying $31,500 over your real MAO. The deal didn't get slightly worse. It flipped from a yes to a clear no, unless the wholesaler can cut that much off the price.

Doing this by hand means an evening of pulling comps, adjusting them in a spreadsheet, and calling contractors for ballpark trade pricing. FlipSmrt does the same rebuild in a few minutes. Paste the address, and it returns adjusted ARV from nearby sold comps, a county-priced rehab broken out by trade, and the resulting MAO. You can then compare it line by line against the deal sheet before the assignment deadline runs out.

Worked Example 2: Full-Cost MAO and How Much Assignment Fee the Deal Can Carry

With the corrected numbers from Example 1 (ARV of $285,000, rehab of $52,000), skip the 70% shortcut and build MAO from every dollar the flip will actually cost. The 70% rule lumps fees, interest, and profit into one rough discount. A full-cost MAO itemizes them, so you can see exactly where your margin comes from and where it leaks.

• ARV: $285,000
• Rehab: minus $52,000
• Buying costs (title, escrow, lender fees): minus $2,500
• Holding costs (5 months x $1,800 for loan interest, taxes, insurance, utilities): minus $9,000
• Selling costs (8% of ARV for commissions, concessions, closing): minus $22,800
• Target profit: minus $35,000

Run it in order: $285,000 minus $52,000 is $233,000, minus $2,500 is $230,500, minus $9,000 is $221,500, minus $22,800 is $198,700, and minus $35,000 leaves $163,700. That is the most you can pay for the property, assignment fee included, and still hit your profit target. Every dollar above it comes straight out of your $35,000.

Now work backward to the fee. Suppose the wholesaler's purchase contract with the seller is $150,000. Your MAO of $163,700 minus their $150,000 contract means the deal can absorb at most $13,700 in assignment fee. Their $179,000 asking price implies a $29,000 fee, which puts you $15,300 over MAO and cuts your profit to $19,700 before a single rehab overrun.

Turn that number into a counter. Try something like: "I ran this with three sold comps within half a mile and a line-item rehab, and I land at $163,700 all-in. With your $150K contract, that leaves $13,700 for your fee. I can close at $163,700 with proof of funds today and a quick inspection window." Because the offer is anchored to math rather than a lowball, a reasonable wholesaler can check your numbers and say yes. If they can't move, you walk with your profit intact.

Edge Cases: Double Closes, EMD Terms, No-Access Deals, and Short Inspection Windows

A deal sheet rarely mentions how the deal closes, but the closing structure changes your costs. In a simple assignment, you pay the assignment fee and step into the wholesaler's contract. In a double close, the wholesaler buys the property and resells it to you, so the transaction carries two sets of closing costs and sometimes a transactional funding fee of 1% to 2%. On a $180,000 purchase, that can add $3,500 or more, and it often gets passed to you through the price. Add it to buying costs in your MAO.

Earnest money terms shift your risk. If the wholesaler wants $10,000 nonrefundable on day one, you lose that deposit if your numbers fall apart after you sign. Either finish your full analysis before the deposit goes hard, or raise your target profit to account for the chance of forfeiting it. A $5,000 bump in required profit lowers your MAO by $5,000, which is a fair price for taking on hard money risk.

"No interior access" listings call for a bigger rehab buffer, not a guess. If you would normally carry a 10% contingency on a $45,000 rehab ($4,500), move it to 25% ($11,250) and assume the roof, HVAC, and electrical need work until proven otherwise. That change drops your MAO by $6,750. If the wholesaler won't accept an offer at that number, you have learned how much they trust their own rehab estimate.

A 48-hour decision window forces fast analysis, but it doesn't excuse skipping steps. You still need comps, a line-item rehab budget, and a full-cost MAO. A tool like FlipSmrt returns ARV, rehab by trade, and MAO in under 5 minutes, which leaves you time to drive the block and call a contractor before the deadline.

Finally, confirm the underlying contract is actually assignable. Many REO and short sale contracts prohibit assignment, and some seller agreements require written consent. If assignment isn't allowed, you may be pushed into a double close at the last minute, adding cost and often two to four weeks of delay. Budget that extra holding time into your MAO before you agree to anything.

Common Mistakes Buyers Make With Wholesale Deals

Accepting the sheet's comps as-is. A deal sheet might list three sales averaging $295,000. On closer look, one is a fully remodeled 2,100 sq ft house 1.2 miles away, and your subject is a dated 1,450 sq ft ranch. Wholesalers pick comps that support the price, not comps that describe the house. Fix: drop any comp more than 0.5 miles away, more than 20% off in square footage, or in a different condition class, then re-average what remains.

Using the wholesaler's rehab number. A line reading "Rehab: $35K" with no breakdown is a guess, and usually an optimistic one. It rarely accounts for a 25-year-old roof, a Federal Pacific panel, or galvanized supply lines you only find in the walkthrough photos. Fix: build your own trade-by-trade budget priced for that county, and treat the sheet's figure as the floor, never the estimate.

Forgetting the assignment fee is part of your basis. If the contract price is $160,000 and the assignment fee is $15,000, you are paying $175,000 for the house. Against an MAO of $180,000, that leaves $5,000 of room, not $20,000. Fix: compare contract price plus assignment fee plus your closing costs to your MAO, never the contract price alone.

Anchoring your counter to the asking price. When the wholesaler asks $175,000, countering at $165,000 feels like a solid negotiation. If your MAO is $152,000, you just offered $13,000 more than the deal supports. Fix: write down your MAO before you read the asking price, and make your first counter at or below that number.

Wiring earnest money before verifying title and access. Buyers under pressure often send $5,000 in non-refundable EMD on day one. Then they discover an unreleased lien or a seller who never signed the underlying contract. Fix: open title with your own title company, ask to see the seller's signed contract, and confirm you can walk the property before any money moves.

FAQ: Analyzing Wholesale Deals Quickly

Is it rude to counter a wholesaler below asking? No. Wholesalers usually price with room to negotiate, and a counter backed by comps and a rehab estimate is normal business. Show your math: "Your sheet uses a $265K ARV, my three closest sold comps support $248K, so I'm at $152K." Many wholesalers would rather trim their fee than lose a buyer who actually closes.

How fast do I really need to decide? Usually faster than you'd like, but not as fast as the email blast implies. Most assignments sit on a contract with a closing date several weeks out, so "first to sign wins" often means first to sign within a day or two. Set your buy box, target profit, and cost assumptions before deals arrive. Then each decision is a quick check, not a weekend project.

What if I can't get inside the property? Price the unknowns instead of guessing optimistically. Assume the big-ticket systems (roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing) need work unless photos or disclosures prove otherwise. Then add a 15-20% contingency on top of your rehab budget. If the deal only works with a light cosmetic rehab you can't verify, pass.

Should I use the 70% rule or full-cost MAO? Use the 70% rule as a 30-second filter, then make your decision on full-cost MAO. On a $240K ARV with $45K in rehab, the 70% rule gives ($240K x 0.70) - $45K = $123K. That shortcut ignores your actual holding, financing, and selling costs, which change with your loan terms and local taxes. Full-cost MAO is the number you should sign against.

How do I check a wholesaler's ARV with only an address? Pull sold comps within about half a mile from the last six months. Match them on beds, baths, square footage, and condition, and adjust for the differences. For a faster independent check, run the address through FlipSmrt. In under 5 minutes it returns an ARV from adjusted MLS sold comps, a line-item rehab estimate priced for that county, and an MAO built on your target profit. Your first 3 analyses are free, which is enough to test it against the next deal sheet in your inbox.